Showing posts with label BSKL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BSKL. Show all posts
AbgZan

Baru-baru ni kita digemparkan dengan tunjuk perasaan di Mesir...diikuti oleh Libya....minggu lepas pulak kita digemparkan dengan berita lebih mengejutkan di mana Jepun dilanda Tsunami dan gempa bumi yang dahsyat, yang menyebabkan Jepun mengalami kerugian hampir 100 Billion Ringgit, atau mungkin lebih....

Apa impaknya kepada kita?

Seperti kita tahu, Jepun ni merupakan satu negara berteknologi tinggi...handphone, laptop dan alat-alat elektronik banyak diimport dari Jepun....selain itu, kita juga ada export beberapa barang ke sana....

Tapi bila berlaku bencana alam yang dahsyat sebegini, Jepun akan mengalami masalah yang besar...banyak aktiviti tergendala...barang-barang2 pun dah tak dapat nak export ke luar...kita pon dah tak dapat nak export barang kita ke sana....

Jepun pula perlu masa dan budget utk nak bangunkan balik bandar jepun tu....malah mungkin pelaburan Jepun di Malaysia pon mungkin akan ada kesannya nanti...

So, atas sebab tu, hubungan perdagangan kita, dan ekonomi di Malaysia mungkin ada kesannya nanti....in my opinion, at least Medium Term jugak tu effectnya....

Bukan setakat Malaysia, malah banyak negara-negara lain yang ada hubungan perdaganngan dengan Jepun seperti Amerika Syarikat (USA) pun akan ada kesannya nanti...

So, ekonomi US pon mungkin ada kesannya sedikit...

Apa bila ekonomi US ada impak negative, maka seluruh dunia akan ada kesannya juga....

Itu semua tak termasuk letupan / kebocoran nuklear di jepun lagi....kalau dulu kita tengok, betapa besarnya kesan bom atom ke atas Jepun....ini nuclear...lagi la besar....takut dia merepak ke seluruh pelusuk dunia...

Semua perkara di atas, menyebabkan bukan sahaja Malaysia, malah seluruh dunia berasa takut, dan mula tarik diri dari stock market...Perkara-perkara di atas dijadikan sebagai an 'excuse" for World Index yang telah OVERBOUGHT utk profit taking kaw2....

Sebab itu kita tengok seluruh dunia mengalami kemerosotan stock market...

Sebenarnya, timing agak kebetulan, di mana bencana yang berlaku di Jepun merealisasikan keperluan utk profit taking bursa serantau....ini semua sudah expected....dan seperti dijangka seperti dalam post saya yang lepas...

I think there is more downside to come for KLCI / BSKL dan juga seluruh dunia....

Wallahu'alam....
AbgZan
Bursa, ringgit catat rekod

Selalu awal tahun, dan hujung tahun adalah masa yang amat tinggi kebarangkalian untuk stock market mencanak2 naik....kenaikan disebabkan oleh semangat baru, dan mungkin didorong oleh "window dressing" yang dilakuan oleh Fund-Fund Manager...Selalu mereka susun semula portfolio perlaburan mereka time2 camni la..mereka akan beli stock2 berpotensi utk naik....

Selain tu, Bursa saham tempatan dan ringgit naik disbbkan oleh sentimen positif pasaran serantau spt Dow Jones (DJIA), Eropah, Asia, etc dan juga prospek pertumbuhan yang baik.

Selain itu, ada sumber mengatakan, aliran dana asing dah mula masuk ke dalam pasaran dan dijangka ia berterusan.

Kalau kita tengok pemulihan ekonomi di Amerika Syarikat (US) pada tahun ini juga merupakan faktor penyumbang kepada keadaan pasaran saham tempatan. Kalau ada apa2 news yang positif yang berlaku di sana akan meninggalkan kesan kepada pasaran saham rantau dan Malaysia.

So atas faktor2 yg aku mention tu, tak hairanlah kenapa kita tengok Bursa Saham Kuala Lumpur (BSKL) naik 14 mata semalam. Paras tertinggi seumur hidup yang pernah BSKL / KLCI capai telah diperbaharui semalam, pada paras lebih kurang 1533...superb....

Tak cukup dengan tu, Ringgit Malaysia juga melonjak kepada paras tertinggi, di mana USD/RM berada pada paras 3.06...tertinggi dalam masa 13 tahun...paling tinggi RM pernah capai berbanding USD, adalah pada paras lebih kurang 2.50 sebelum gawat kaw-kaw pada tahun 1996/1997 tempoh hari....

So sekarang ni adalah masa yang sesuai, kepada yang nak pergi melancong ke US...mana tak nya, duit murah giler bebbbb,...

Stock market pula, skrg sudah dikatakan BULLISH..tetapi masih perlu hati-hati...aku merasakan, KLCI boleh naik lagi ke paras 1,640 maximum, sebelum profit taking kaw-kaw akan berlaku menuju ke paras 1,300....akan tetapi sebelum menuju ke paras 1,640 tu, ada kemungkinan profit taking berlaku dahulu.....

Apa pon, jangan terlalu gopoh dan tamak....

Wallahu'alam....

kalau siapa yang belom FOLLOW, follow ler my blog...sesiapa yang ada blog sendiri, masukkan la LINK BLOG aku ni kat blog korang, hehe.... supaya tak terlepas ikut kisah hidup aku anak beranak sekeluarga dan kisah2 menarik pelaburan dan cara-cara aku menjimatkan wang ringgit di samping beberapa kisah-kisah teladan...hehe....

Till then....wassalaam....

KOMEN LE SIKIT CEK KAK / CEK ABANG OI...takkan baca jer, cuma 2-3 patah pon ok ler...hehe
AbgZan
Assalamualaikum semua,


Nampaknya sudah lama sangat saya ta update tentang stock market...


Kita perhatikan, stock market di Malaysia, atau Bursa Saham Kuala Lumpur, outperform....mengatasi stock market di US, UK, Europe, Asia dan lain-lain...kerana apa? kerana Stock Market di Malaysia, antara salah satu yang sudah cecah "all time high" sejak pertama kali berlaku pada Januari 2008 sebelum menjunam laju ke paras 800++... skrg stock market di Malaysia berjaya cecah kembali paras all time high tersebut, malah berjaya break into "new"all time high, abut 1530...memang superb....

Walaupun ketika tu, Europe ak habis-habis keluarkan pelbagai bad news, di mana matawng Euro menjunam ke paras terendah sejak tahun lepas, iaitu EUR/USD menjunam dari 1.51 kepada 1.19 dalam masa beberapa bulan sahaja, tetapi pada masa yang sama, KLCI / BSKL masih mendaki mencipta new all time high....

Ini kerana Malaysia sejak tahun lepas, pelbagai rangsangan ekonomi dilaksanakan oleh kerajaan. Malah dirangsang dengan pelbagai berita-berita baik berkaitan ekonomi negara yang baik...Maka bulan lepas, KLCI dengan jayanya cecah 1530,new all time high...

Tetapi adakah ianya akan bertahan? Adakah KLCI masih mengamalkan, "Dasar Pandang ke Barat"? Sejak dari dulu, bukan sahaja Malaysia, malah Asia dan Eropah mengamalkan dasar pandang ke US, iaitu melihat kepada perkembangan ekonomi Amerika Syarikat...
Tetapi, sejak 6 bulan kebelakangan ini, Malaysia, lebih kepada pandang kepada diri sendiri....

Persoalannya, sampai bilakah?

Pada pendapat saya, sampai Malaysia ketandusan idea, untuk mengeluarka apa lagi berita ekonomi yang menarik....skrg ni, Malaysia dah agak tepu dengan berita-berita menarik...

Malaysia juga telah mencipta new all time high, yang parasnya, boleh dikatakan, "DOUBLE TOP" (sila baca post saya sebelum ini tentang DOube Top)...

US pula (Dow Jones Industrial Averag, DJIA) , pada hemat saya, skrg ni tengan struggle memecahkah resistance 11,400...sebelum ini saya pernah menyatakan kepada kawan saya bahawa 11,400 mungkin merupakan "TOP" untuk DJIA....dan ia memang berlaku, tetapi skrg ni, mencuba buat kali kedua untuk break....jikalau break, next target 11,800....jikalau 11,400-11,800 gagal dipecahkah dalam 2 bulan ini, pada firasat saya, nantikanlah PROFIT TAKING YANG KAW-KAW untuk US, atau even worse, double dip recession mungkin berlaku....

Jikalau ia berlaku, maka nantikanlah KLCI menuju kembali ke paras 1,100-1,200 at least....

On the other side, jikalau KLCI sambung mendaki, 1,640 is the next target...but...don't be so wishful that is gonna happen so soon....

Wallahu'alam...
AbgZan
Kita tengok pelbagai program Kerajaan lalukan untuk menggalakkan pelaburan asing ke Malaysia. Adakah ia berkesan? Kadangkala kita baca berita, berbillion Ringgit dilaburkan ke Malaysia. Tetapi adakah ianya besar? Bagi saya ia agak kecil berbanding tahun-tahun lepas, seperti pada tahun 2007.

Kalau nak senang, kita tengok aja jumlah transaksi Bursa Saham Kuala Lumpur setiap hari. Hanya separuh atau 1/3 sahaja berbanding jumlahnya pada tahun 2007/2008. Ini bermakna tidak ramai yang melabur. Atau nak senang cerita, tak ramai pelabur asing yang masuk pasaran Malaysia. Mengapa?

Kerana "Pelabur Asing tiada wang untuk melabur"...begitulah kata Dr. Mahathir...dan saya bersetuju dengan beliau....baca artikel yang dipetik dari Utusan di bawah untuk maklumat lanjut:


Pelabur asing tidak ada wang untuk melabur - Dr. Mahathir

KUALA LUMPUR 1 Ogos - Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad berkata, kemerosotan pelaburan langsung asing (FDI) ke negara ini disebabkan pelabur asing seperti dari Amerika Syarikat (AS) dan Eropah tidak mempunyai wang untuk dilaburkan.

Bekas Perdana Menteri memberitahu, pelabur terbabit juga memerlukan wang yang mereka ada untuk dilaburkan di dalam negara sendiri berikutan keadaan ekonomi yang semakin teruk terutama di Eropah dan AS.

''Keadaan ekonomi Eropah dan AS amat terjejas berikutan krisis kewangan yang melanda negara terbabit sehingga ramai rakyatnya tidak mempunyai pekerjaan.

''Kebanyakan pelabur terpaksa menumpukan kepada pelaburan di dalam negara masing-masing kerana ia amat diperlukan di sana, ini bermakna mereka tidak akan membuat pelaburan besar di negara lain,'' katanya.

Beliau yang merupakan Pengerusi The Loaf berkata demikian kepada pemberita selepas melancarkan cawangan keempat The Loaf di IOI Boulevard di Puchong dekat sini hari ini.

Turut hadir isteri beliau, Tun Dr. Siti Hasmah Mohd. Ali dan Pengarah Urusan The Loaf, Jiro Suzuki.

Dr. Mahathir mengulas mengenai Malaysia mencatat kejatuhan FDI sebanyak 81 peratus tahun lalu kepada AS$1.38 bilion (RM4.22 bilion) berbanding AS$7.31 bilion (RM23.39 bilion) pada 2008 yang merupakan rekod terburuk dialami negara sejak 15 tahun lalu.

Sehubungan itu, beliau meminta kerajaan mengkaji bagi meningkatkan pelaburan dalam negeri seperti yang dilakukan oleh negara-negara lain.

Sementara itu, mengenai The Loaf, Dr. Mahathir memberitahu, kedai roti premium berasaskan resipi Jepun itu menerima banyak permohonan untuk memfrancais jenama kedai tersebut termasuk dari Singapura dan Indonesia.

''Memang menjadi hasrat The Loaf untuk memfrancais perniagaan tetapi masanya belum tiba, memandangkan pihak pengurusan perlu mendapatkan data yang tertentu bagi memastikan ia akan memberi keuntungan mencukupi.

''The Loaf perlu memastikan bahawa jenama ini mampu menarik pelanggan setiap masa dan dapat mencatatkan keuntungan yang maksimum, bagi memastikan setiap kedai francais yang dibuka akan dapat keuntungan sewajarnya,'' katanya.

Beliau memberitahu, usaha untuk memfrancais The Loaf akan dibuat secepat mungkin selepas semua data dan jenama itu mendapat pengiktirafan sewajarnya daripada pelanggan.

Dr. Mahathir memberitahu, adalah tidak rasional untuk The Loaf mengendalikan semua cawangannya dan cara terbaik ialah melalui francais yang dilakukan pada masa yang sesuai.

The Loaf juga akan membuka cawangan kelima di Bangsar sebelum akhir tahun ini.



ANy comment guys, just drop it down ok :)
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AbgZan
Baru-baru ni, kita saksikan satu company mengalami satu peristiwa yang tak pernah berlaku di Malaysia...ia berlaku kepada satu syarikat yang bernama Kenmark Industrial Bhd....

Cuba kita tengok apa yang berlaku kepada harganya dulu....daripada about RM0.90, dia turun kepada about RM0.80, lepas tu, turun kepada RM0.60. Itu permulaan kejatuhan teruk harga share Kenmark....lepastu, hari ke-3 kejatuhannya dari RM0.60++ kepada RM0.33...hari berikutnya, jatuh kepada RM0.095...Dan hari ke-5 (Selasa, 1 June 2010), pada bukaan pagi, harganya OPEN at RM0.035....WOWW....and you guys know what, I followed the price VERY CLOSELY....

I thought this is a very good opportunity...opportunity to buy...at the open price of RM0.035, I saw so many buyers....not really so many buyers, but so many shares being bought...buying interest bertambah....di sebelah pagi, dari RM0.035 dia naik kepada RM0.06...lepas tu, pricenyer turun balik ke RM0.04 pada pukul 3ptg lebih....tapi naik balik kepada RM0.06, dan tutup pada harga RM0.06....satu kenaikan yang menguntuntkan kepada mereka yang beli pada harga RM0.035 atau 0.04....hehe....did i buy? hmm...sorry, can't tell here....

On wednesday, the price open at RM0.05, pastu turun kejap kat RM0.045, then naik kepada RM0.07, pada pukul 12.30 tghhari....AURA nak sambung naik kelihatan :D....

Pukul 2.30 ptg, Share KENMARK, turun kepada RM0.065, pastu terus naik kepada RM0.09.....WOWW.....lepastu, pada pukul 3.30-4ptg, harga sudah melonjak kepada RM0.13...WOWW....superbb, hehe :D...tapi profit taking took place, harga turun balik kepada RM0.105, dan ditutup pada RM0.115...

On Thursday, counter suspended, no trading....

On Friday, kenmark open at RM0.21...woww....then turun 0.205, then naik kepada RM0.29....dlm masa stgh jam sahaja.....lepas tu profit taking, price turun kepada RM0.245, then slowly naik baik kepada RM0.29, malah cecah RM0.295....lepas tu profit taking balik, go back to RM0.255,and closed at RM0.26 for the day.... CUba bayangkan kalau ada yang beli share pada harga RM0.035 atau RM0.04, dan masih pegang sampai skrg iaitu RM0.26....kalau invest RM3500 pada harga 0.035, skrg sudah harga RM0.26, bermaksud, value share sudah bernilai RM26k...Kalau masuk Rm35k, skrg sudah bernilai RM260k....

Anyway, dalam masa seminggu macam2 cerita keluar ttg KENMARK:

- first, price go down from bout RM0.90 to RM0.33,nobody knows why....
- then, price go down to RM0.095, sblm recover kepada RM0.105,BURSA noticed and SUSPEND the counter for the day....BURSA query Unusua Market Activity (UMA)....
- Check punya check, Managing Director KENMARK, a Taiwanese, hilang entah ke mana, tak dapat dihubungi...Meeting yang sepatunyer berlangsung weekend aritu, tak dpt berjalan,kerana hanya ada 2 org hadir.
- Bila diperiksa, MD hilang entah ke mana...Banyak management sudah resigned...WWOWWW... - pergi ke rumah MD, rumah dah kena sealed oleh EON bank....
- Hari Isnin, 400+ pekerja yang datang nak mencari rezeki di Kenmark, TERKJUT besar....company kena locked...aduhai...semua pekerja tekejut, tak sangka boleh jadi begini...duit gaji baru aja dpt, semua org dpt gaji, takde masalah....ramai pekerja2 lama, ada yg dah kerja about 2o yrs, pon risau...
- Antara bad news, KENMARK workers file RM1.4million claims...creditor claim RM20mil...hutang banyak....
- tapi tetiba hari Rabu keluar good news (as I expected, judging from the buying interest and the price increase)..antaranya, MD contact director Kenmark,mengatakan dia sebenarnya di China,tengah sakit....
- good news lain, MD lantik 1 org chairman and 3 org director...
- good news lain keluar semalam (Jumaat),mengatakan Ishak Ismail (bekas director KFC kalau tak silap) beli 32% shares in OPEN MARKET.....mungkin tu antara sbbnyer market jump giler2....IShak beli time tu harga shares bawah RM.10....
- Lepas tu harini (Sabtu) keluar lagi satu good news, after meeting yang baru berlangsung....mengatakan "Kenmark workers being called back to work"...
- ada soal jawab masa Press COnference (http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/6/5/business/6405905&sec=business), antara the STAR BIZ WEEK dgn top management yang baru dilantik, yang memberi "HARAPAN" dan "GOOD NEWS" and "some immediate plan" to be taken to solve the problems in KENMARK...


Berdasarkan cerita2 di atas, I think on Monday, the share price may open higher and go higher (even though Wall Street Jumaat mlm aritu tutup -3%)...Kenmark ditutup pada RM0.26, dan masa nak tutup tu pon ada minat belian last2 minute....kalau ada rezzeki, KENMARK boleh naik kepada RM0.30++ malah kalau ada miracle, mungkin boleh limit up (RM0.56), hehe...silap2 dlm masa beberapa hari minggu depan, harga boleh kembali kepada asal RM0.90, haha...

Tapi on the other side pulak, kalau kenaikan harga ni semua hanya mainan sindiket, harga may also go down tu below RM0.20....Apa pon, kita tgk aja Isnin nanti macamana:) But my gut feeling says it may go higher :)

Wallahu'alam....


------------------
Directors shed some light
By BK SIDHU and TEE LIN SAY
starbizweek@thestar.com.my



AT a hastily arranged press conference yesterday, Kenmark Industrial Co (M) Bhd’s newly appointed directors sought to shed light on their plans to turn around the company and to explain some of the puzzling developments that had plagued the company over the last few days. Below, excerpts from the press conference with Datuk Abd Gani Yusof, Woon Wai En and Ho Soo Woon:

SBW: What is the priority at this point?

Gani: It is to see how fast we can commence operations. We are also accessing the situation and will release statements as new developments happen.

Who gave you access to start operations? Have operations actually started?


Datuk Abd Gani ... ‘If out customers and banks support us, I believe we can turn the company around.’
Gani: We met key members of management and we asked them what is required to restart the production. We will take it from there. Management is supposed to do an assessment of various departments, the equipment, and the personnel required. Some new recruitment may be needed.

Are there enough raw materials, enough workers?

Ghani: I can’t answer that yet. We are meeting management on Monday to see where we stand and decide whether there is a need to purchase more raw materials or get more workers.

Where will the funds for the operations come from?

Gani: As we saw yesterday, we have enough machinery and raw material stock. There are also some debts that can be collected. Any additions will have to be reviewed as we go along.

What’s the situation with Kenmark’s creditors?

Gani: We are not under any threats from creditors. The term loan with EON Bank was taken for our factory in Port Klang. And that too, is well secured.

Have you defaulted on any of your debts?

Gani: We have not.

So why did the bank come out with this notice to secure the premises?

Gani: They had to once they found out there was no management in charge and nobody is looking after the business. Somebody has to look after the asset that is charged to the bank.

It’s been reported that key management has resigned. Is this true?

Gani: We talked to key management yesterday, and they told us none of them have resigned. Only one person resigned, and we asked her to come back and she is willing.

Doesn’t Kenmark have to meet orders from customers in time?

Gani: We only have one order to deliver by month-end, that is why as soon as we get the company working again, the business can recommence and the delivery for month-end will be met.

There is another executive director, Chang, who’s role is to take care of the plants. So how did the new directors come into the picture?

Ho: He is mainly in charge of the Vietnam plant.

Is he in communication with the new directors?

Ho: Yes he is, with the company secretary.

Does he hold the key to the factory’s production?

Ho: No.

We are trying to establish when and why was the factory shut down, and what has happened between that time. Can you comment?

Woon: We did not do a post-mortem on those events when we met with management this morning. We are not out to do a witch hunt. That can come later. We want to recommence the business as soon as possible. The idea now is to instill confidence, get the staff back so that we can deliver our orders. If we have to double time to get it done, we’ll do it.

How much damage has happened at Kenmark’s Vietnam factory? We heard there was some looting.

Ho: It is intact, because they can’t take away big machinery. The most they can take away are computers. In any case, we don’t want to speculate. We are not able to identify who the culprits are.

How soon will it take for you to come out with a regularisation plan?

Gani: I don’t know, but we have a board meeting scheduled on Monday followed by a staff meeting. We will come out with a firm plan. We know the mistake now. We know there was some communication gaps that resulted in this whole mess. We won’t let that happen again.

What are the special auditors who have been appointed tasked to do?

Gani: The terms of reference will be given upon the approval of their appointment by Bursa. Bursa will draw up what they want the special auditor to do.

Is there hostility between James Hwang’s people and this new team?

Gani: I do not know, but they voted us in yesterday.

Do you represent Datuk Ishak Ismail? He seems to have bought so many shares in Kenmark in two days. How is that possible?

Gani: Why don’t you ask him that.

Ho: I think if you look at the turnover of the volume done for Kenmark, it was quite high.

On James Hwang’s disappearance.

Are any of the four new directors in contact with Hwang?

Ho: Yes, he calls us.

What does he want?

Ho: As he explained in the letter, he is very sorry this has happened and is asking us to help him rectify the situation.

Does he feel sorry for what he has done?

Ho: Yes, as he said in the letter. I think he’s very depressed.

How could he just leave everything and run off?

Ho: I think the issue is he did not leave everything. Sometimes when you collapse, there is no such thing as “I am going to collapse, I need to get this and that done”. I was told that he collapsed due to exhaustion and lack of sleep. At one point, he was without sleep for nearly 20 days which I don’t think is humanly possible.

This is something which is unplanned, and very unfortunate for a man who thinks he is superhuman.

But he has other directors. Why didn’t they come out?

Ho: The management and operations are very tightly controlled by one man. And without this person’s direction, the other directors will not do anything.

We are here to put the situation right. Even from the board position, the executive directors are all Taiwanese, and they all report to him. There is no local executive director to liaise with the market to say what is happening. So this is a situation that we have rectified by appointing four local directors.

Why didn’t his family members alert the public as to where he was?

Ho: His family also did not know where he was. The initial reaction was that he was kidnapped.

So you believe you can make Kenmark better?

Ho: With the co-operation of everybody, we can.

But what is the main plan for Kenmark?

Woon: Too early to say as this is only our second day of being appointed.

Gani: We are here to work and to deliver. We want to get the business going on again. If we didn’t believe in that, we won’t waste our time here.

What would it take to win confidence?

Gani: Start operations again, and return to profitability.

When can this happen?

Woon: As soon as possible.

Ghani: The first task is to get the company out of PN17.

Ho: We want to get the business going on again. I think if you look at the company’s track record, it has been very solid. For this to happen overnight, it is very unfortunate. The fact that the key management staff we met today, most of them told us that they have worked from between 19-26 years. That says a lot of the company. If the key people are with us, if our customers still trust us and the bankers support us, I believe we can turn the company around.


Komen ye kawan2....jgn tak komen , thanks :)
AbgZan

I came across this nice article, and decided to share with you guys about investment with Common Sense System...have fun...


For Patient Investors, Another Window to Buy

by James B. Stewart
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
provided by SmartMoney

The correction that made such a brief appearance two weeks ago has returned, this time apparently to stay. For me and anyone following the Common Sense system, that means opportunity.


Last week, the Nasdaq dropped convincingly below the Common Sense buying threshold, which is a 10% decline from the most recent high reached on April 23. The S&P 500 also dropped more than 10% from its peak, putting both major averages into an official correction, the first since the bull market began its rise on March 10, 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below the 10% correction threshold Thursday, returned above the line Friday and fell back below it again Monday. The Common Sense approach calls for buying on corrections of 10%, and selling after rallies of 25%.

Just two weeks ago I fretted that a buying opportunity had come and gone so fast I was unable to take advantage of it. The $1 trillion rescue plan unveiled by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund had triggered a huge rally, and it looked like the bull market was back. I needn't have worried. European sovereign worries have returned with a vengeance. Not only did the market's plunge renew a buying opportunity, but indexes fell so rapidly last week that the Nasdaq Composite was well below the 10% threshold on Thursday, when I made some purchases.


This is yet another reminder to remain focused on the long term and not get caught up in the minute-by-minute or even daily gyrations of the stock market. I've said for months that eventually there would be a correction, and not just one lasting a few minutes.

Having gone through three successive selling opportunities during the past year, I had ample cash at my disposal. (I generally sell roughly 10% of my portfolio at each selling opportunity and spend about 20% of my cash at each buying window.) In deciding what to buy, I simply followed the advice I've offered in recent columns. One strategy was to add exposure to commercial real estate, a sector I'd shunned as overvalued but recently concluded showed promise. I'll give a more detailed report on my real estate strategy in a future column, but one component was simply to buy a diversified exchange-traded fund, the Vanguard REIT Index Fund (NYSEArca: VNQ - News).

For stocks, I focused on some of my own recent recommendations in the technology sector. Despite generally solid earnings, the tech sector has corrected more severely than the broad market. I bought long-term Apple (NYSE: AAPL - News) calls at only a modest premium to the current price (I already have a position in Apple shares), as well as the PowerShares QQQ (NasdaqGM: QQQQ - News) exchange-traded fund, which approximates the performance of the Nasdaq. I've been impressed recently with strong earnings from big technology concerns like Intel (NasdaqGS: INTC - News), Cisco Systems (NasdaqGS: CSCO - News), and Oracle (NasdaqGS: ORCL - News), which account for three of the fund's top 10 holdings. (Apple is its largest position.)

I also raised cash by selling some Google (NasdaqGS: GOOG - News) puts. This is the first time I've sold puts in over a year. (Selling puts means you agree to buy shares at the strike price if they're trading below that price when they expire.) It's a strategy I recommend when option prices are high (such as when the VIX has jumped, as it did last week) and when I expect shares to rally. If you really hope to own the shares, I find you're better off buying them outright or buying calls. I wouldn't mind owning Google at the strike price, but since I already have a substantial position, I'm also happy to simply keep the cash should the puts expire above the strike price.

I did all these transactions last Thursday afternoon, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was heading toward a 376-point one-day loss. With the previous brief correction fresh in my mind, I moved quickly in case the window proved fleeting. I needn't have; stocks were still in correction territory this week.

My reaction illustrates the persistence of psychological factors, even after years of investing. Why was I so concerned this correction would be brief? After waiting more than a year for a buying opportunity, the rising market has conditioned me to expect more of the same: a brief correction followed by the return of the bull. I was eager to put money to work and get it out of low-yielding money-market funds. And yet I realized my eagerness should have been tempered by the likelihood that this may not be the last correction. If history is any guide, the fact that there hasn't been a correction for so long increases the chances that there will be another 10% decline.

So I still have cash in reserve. As usual, I'm making no short-term predictions about the direction of the market. My goal is simply to be prepared when opportunities present themselves, as they did last week.

Copyrighted, SmartMoney.com. All Rights Reserved.

Any comment?
AbgZan
Berdasarkan my posting yg lepas (http://kakilabur.blogspot.com/2010/05/klci-bskl-time-for-correction-652010.html), KLCI skrg ni berada di tengah2 garisan correction (2) atau (3)....kalau peringkat MODERATE correction (2), maximum about -100 points....

dan skrg ni memang KLCI dah jatuh -100 smlm....so, kalau "niat" klci hanya utk moderate correction, maka from today onwards, KLCI akan sambung naik menuju ke 1,400++....

tapi kalau "KLCI nak sambung correction", sampai MAJOR correction (4), maka expect further downside till 1,050-1,100....

Mana satu agaknya KLCI pilih, (2) atau (3)?

Sapa yakin (2) boleh accumulate skrg...sapa yakin (3) leh tunggu lagi....cuma kalau dia tak pergi ke (3), terlepas ler peluang utk beli pada harga rendah....

So, sapa ada cash boleh la masuk sebahagian kalau separuh yakin...kalau yakin 100% masuk 100%...kalau tak yaking langsung, jgn masuk langsung, hehe :)

Kalau u all tanya saya, saya akan masuk 65%....tinggalkan 35%..

Yang pastinyer,nak ramal market memang payah...yang pasti ramai org pilih (3), and market tend to make your prediction wrong....so, my prediction is, market akan pilih (2) for now....di mana KLCI akan naik sampai dia naik balik sampai 1,300-1,315 at least (technical rebound), baru dia akan jatuh balik dan pilih (3)....:D

So, kaalau my prediction is right, it is time to buy for short term now and run bila dapat profit... :D hehe...

Wallahu'alam....

Any comment?
AbgZan
Semalam kita tengok market asia termasuk malaysia kaw3 punya pressure selling...diikuti oleh europe...then mlm smlm US pulak buat hal sampai hampir -4% drop... So ke manakah hala tuju KLCI/BSKL kita ptg ni...smlm dah jatuh sampai -20 mata...pagi td pon jatuh -20 jugak...

Utk long term susah nak predict...sbb issue matawang eropah jatuh kaw4 sampai eur/USD jadi about 1.21...

sO ptg ni dan esok hala tuju KLCI /BSKL ke mana? This is my comment:

- eUR/USD dah mula naik balik dari paras 1.21 ke paras 1.26...dah mula recover...gua rasa menuju ke 1.28 soon ni...good thing..
- uS Dow Jones dah positive about 0.50%...good..
- market asia dah mula recover, less negative...Shanghai pulak dah hijau..good...
- Europe mungkin akan hijau ptg ni, sbb matawang EUR dah reocver...smlm pon dah byk giler turun...
- Mlm kang US pon is set to opnen positive...sbb smlm US pon dah jtuh gila2nyer...time to accumulate....

Atas sbb2 di atas...KLCI ptg ni akan mula recover, gua rasa akan jadi -10 aja...counter2 murah pon akan naik...sapa ada cash bole buy now...time to make money man!!

antara counter yg boleh diperhatikan adalah:
1) MEGB: fundamental kuat...buyer masih ramai..
2) Maxbiz: ada minat belian dari org dlm / sindiket...

wallahualam..

any komen?
AbgZan
Salam sejahtera semua,

Lately walaupon KLCI / BSKL masih bertahan di atas takuk 1300, tetapi byk saham2 murah dah alami pressure selling, dan menurun ke paras harga support...belom lagi KLCI jatuh ke paras 1250 atau 1200, or even 1100!!! Semua bergantung kpd market US dan juga EUROPE (especially GREECE!!), punca kepada segalanya....

Mlm smlm, kita dah saksikan Dow Jones jatuh sebyk -1,000 points (-10%) sblm recover kepada about -350 (-3.2%)....walaupon ada ura-ura kata itu semua kesilapan teknikal yg menybbkan dia jatuh -1000 points...tapi, itu tanda2 wujudnya seller yg ramai....tetapi mungkinkah itu semua hanya "dummy" semata-mata utk kasi scared investor jual, sblm mereka goreng kaw2 sampai ke paras 11,500-12,000?

Apa pun, mlm ni adalah penentu guys....mlm ini.....mlm ini US anounce NFP (Non Farm Payroll...penentu kepada samada:

1) profit taking kaw2 akan bersambung, or
2) bull still in control...

So, sapa berani dan yakin dgn harga jualan murah BSKL / KLCI ni bukan "TIRUAN SEMATA2", bley angkat n simpan....

Sapa tak yakin, boleh tunggu sampai 2 minggu hingga sebulan lagi baru shopping, hehe...

Wallahu'alam...

ANy comment guys?
AbgZan
Market serantau termasuk market KLCI sedang tidak menentu,kejap turun, kejap naik...

US pulak tak abis2 keluar berita yg sama, balik2 isu Greece dgn Euronya....tak lain tak bukan nak kasi pelabur gerun dan panick selling...

Persoalannya, adakah skrg masa utk correction telah sampai? Wallahu'alam...sukar nak predict...

Anyway, correction ni ada 4 jenis dari segi size:

1) minor - setakat 0 to 30 points down aja..biasanya dlm 2 hari hgga 4 hari cmtu jer

2) moderate - dlm 50 to 100 points .. mcm yg berlaku bulan jan-mac 2010 aritu, drop dr 1309 to 1224..tempoh dlm sebulan hgga 2 buln cmtu..

3) MAJOR correction, 150 to 300 points...so market leh jatuh dr 1345 till even 1000 poimts...wow...

4) RECESSION: super duper big correction..mcm yg brlaku thn 2008, drop dr 1500++ kpd 800....org2 mcm buffet tunggu saat2 ni la utk depa start invest...gua start masuk balik awal 2009 tp gua tak sekaya buffet la, tapi hanya bilis kerdil...haha

gua tak rasa (4) akan berlaku dlm masa 5 thn ni, sbb ia brlaku dlm 8-10 thn skali.......gua juga tak risau kalau (1) berlaku...sbb tmpohnya kjap je...gua juga tak rasa (2) akan berlaku dlm masa tdekat ni...sbb ia baru aja berlaku sebulan lpas...cuma, gua takut...kalau...berlakunya (3)...di mana market jatuh ke paras 1000 mata.....biasa akan ambil 4-6 bulan utk recover....cuma gua rasa it is not time yet, for that kind of correction...

wallahualam...

ANy comment? Just drop it down here :)
AbgZan
Mlm smlm kita tgk market US i.e DJIA menjunam -2%...atas sbb tu byk negara yg ikut kena cucuk hidung....

KLCI aja kita tgk byk counter yg dah turun terlalu byk sampai terlalu oversold...kalau shopping memang sedap...sapa yg nak shopping boleh shopping sikit, asalkan tak "ALL OUT"...

Antara counter yg boleh kita ushar utk beli:

1) IRCB

2) AWC

3) mkland...

4) scomi

5) 3A

6) Dufu

7) perisai


Wallahu'alam...

Just drop your comments down here ok guys...:)
AbgZan
Sejak lebih kurang seminggu lepas, gua tak berapa aktif membeli dan menjual....ini kerana gua tgk market tak menentu, di mana Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) di US bullish, tapi KLCI tak menentu....malah counter2 murah byk yg oversold, harga sudah amat murah....ini menandakan market tak menentu....tak lama lagi, DJIA akan alami profit taking yang berat....masa tu, mungkin makin teruk BSKL akan menjunam...

Jadi atas dasar tu, adalah better utk tidak buat belian....kounter yang sudah dibeli, gua masih pegang, just in case kalau BULL STILL IN CONTROL...sbb nobody can predict exactly what is gonna happen to the market...kalau berkesempatan mungkin jual beberapa counter dan kumpul cash....

Dlm keadaan begini, adalah bagus, utk investor yang invest 50% dan cash 50% di tangan get ready...kalau market naik senyum, market turun pun senyum, sbb boleh buy at LOW price..

Kepada Unit Trust Investor, skrg adalah masa yang terbaik utk "SWITCH" kepada bond separuh dari Equity anda :) ...

Wallahu'alam...


Takkan baca aja kawan-kawan, komen le sikit kat bawah ni , hehe:)
AbgZan
Baru-baru ni ada pembaca bertanya ttg CPO...dan minta saya compare dgn BSKL / saham...ok...camni...CPO ni trade pakai margin...margin ni, ada 2 perkara, pertama risiko tinggi..kedua golongan yg strict dari segi Islam, kehalalannya diragui...my comment:

1) CPO risiko tinggi, kalau untung, untung byk, kalau rugi rugi byk....agak serupa dgn FOREX....cuma kalau dpt control tamak, dan target untung sikit, mungkin boleh minimisekan kerugian....

2) dari segi kehalalannya diragui oleh segelintir pihak, sbb beli pakai margin, bukan pakai duit sebenar......

3) CPO boleh short selling....jual dulu baru beli...kalau reality, dlm dunia sebenar, boleh ke kita jual dulu, baru beli? kepada yg strict dgn hukum Islam, kalau saya tak silap, itu dipanggil "GHARAR" di mana kita jual benda yg kita takde, pastu baru beli....

4) Kalau beli saham, kita invest dlm syarikat, di mana duit kita takkan "hilang" selagi kita tak jual....di mana long term, mungkin akan naik balik, provided kita beli saham yg STRONG fundamental....or dgn kata lain, saham atau stock market, ianyer lebih selamat dan terjamin, walaupon masih "RISKY" jugak...saham hanya risky kalau kita beli saham yg fundamental tak kuat, dan jugak dipengaruhi oleh ekonomi global, terutamanya US dan EUROPE, ASIA, etc....

SO pendek kata, kalau anda nak INVEST BIG AMOUNT better invest dlm STOCK MARKET, daripada dlm CPO...

wallahu'alam....

Any comment guys? Just drop it down here
AbgZan
Nampaknya memang profit taking dah bermula utk DJIA mlm tadi, as expected....KLCI yg dah memang sudah lama profit taking, bersambung dgn agenda "PRESSURE PANICK SELLING" pulak...tapi, sebenarnyer now is the time to shop, kpd yg "berani"....

Apa pon, gua rasa DJIA belom betul2 confirm lagi yg profit taking dah mula ke blom....mungkin diorg hanya SHOCKED dgn berita GREECE yg sengaja diperbesar2kan, utk mrealisasikan profit taking (disbbkan DJIA dah overbought)....kalau mlm ni DJIA hijau, maksudnya BULL masih in control...kalau mlm ni MERAH lagi,maksudnya profit taking dah bermula....

kepada yg berani, boleh shopping counter2 favorite, tapi jgn "all out" lagi....

wallahu'alam...

Any comment just drop it down here:)
AbgZan
Harini lewat gua masuk online, ada hal sikit kasi settle....spt biasa market lembab cam biasa...walaupon market US (DJIA) smlm masih kekal dgn HIJAUnya..KLCI skrg masih tak menentu....as I mentioned beberapa kali sblm ni, selagi 1345 is not broken successfully, KLCI belom confirm bullish....walupun,DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) masih kekal dgn bullish, tetapi ia sudah overbought, pancit dan overdue utk profit taking....Kepada yg berminat utk invest dlm stock market (or even Unit Trust), this is my advice:

1) Kepada yg BELUM invest, better jgn invest lagi, tunggu dan lihat...dlm keadaan market tak menentu ni, better jgn masuk...kalau mau masuk jugak, invest hanya 30% out of your total allocation...

2) Kepada yg dah invest separuh dari wang anda, better jgn buat apa2....

3) Kepada yg dah invest SEPENUHNYA dari wang anda, better, jual separuh dari pegangan, terutama counter2 yg anda sudah untung dan berada dlm keadaan sideway....

Whatever pon, itu semua is my advice aja,it's your money, and you have the right to do whatever you like to your money....

Ada pertanyaan atau komen, tinggal aja sini :)
AbgZan
Spt biasa, as expected DJIA masih bullish dan takde tanda2 yang depa nak bukak kandang BERUANG yet....not yet....skrg ni dlm range 11,100-11,200...

Tapi as usual jugak, KLCI masih belom betul2 bullish, selagi 1345 is not broken....just be careful babe....

By the time KLCI "realize" yang "rupa-rupanya" DJIA tgh bullish rupanya, dan by the time KLCI baru terhegeh2 mau "betul2 bulish" time tu DJIA akan start profit taking kaw2, dan KLCI takde option lain melainkan kena cucuk hidung aja nanti....atas dasar tu, hati2 kepada yg ingin invest much money....

Any comment?
AbgZan
My watchlist for this morning:

Supermx: Buy if 7.40 is broken, medium term 7.80, medium term 8.40...long term 10.70
Scomi: buy if 0.52 is broken, Short term TP 0.545,medium term 0.60, long term 0.78
Kpj-wa: buy if 1.43 is broken, short term 1.47, medium term 1.54
Dufu: BUy if 0.645 is broken, medium term target 0.675
Eng: buy if 2.85 is broken, short term target 2.98, medium term 3.46
Pelikan: buy if 1.38 is broken, medium term target 1.47

These are some of my watchlist counters, and my own pooint of view....not a recommendation to buy or sell, unless at your own risk....:)

Wallahu'alam...

Any comment?
AbgZan
Harini perhatikan counter teknologi...

Antaranya:

Dufu - menuju "MEDIUM TERM TARGET 0.64...kalau broken
0.64....menuju 0.68-0.72....

UNISEM - sambung pecut ke 3.40...short term
TP 3.46...medium target 3.64...

ENG - percubaan kali entah ke berapa
untuk pecah resistance...immediate resistance 2.85 followed by 2.94 and 3.00....

These are some of my watchlist counters, and my own pooint of view....not a recommendation to buy or sell, unless at your own risk....:)

Wallahu'alam...

Any comment?
AbgZan
Atas permintaan, gua beri ulasan beberapa counters yg gua watch / involve / buy / sell:

Dufu -->buy below 0.55, TP short term 0.585, TP medium term 0.64, long term
0.78

3A--> buy below 1.90, TP short term 2.04, medium term
2.16...long term 2.46...

Scomi --> skrg ni tgh main2 polis entry kat
support 0.49..immeidiate resistance at 0.52, diikuti 0.54....Scomi kalau dia
berjaya break 0.52, dia akan retest 0.54-0.545.
consider this counter not ready for bullish yet, but worth to accumulate at this cheap price...

Scomi-wa --> hati2...sbb scomi masih belum break resistance, takut
dia retest support at 0.44 and 0.40...if broken, paham2 la apa akan jadi kat
anaknya

KPJ-WA --> bila maknya KPJ naik, anaknya naik "TAK SEPERTI
yang sepatutnyer"...di mana naiknya sikit.......bila mak dia turun sikit,
anaknya PULAK turun KAW2...kelakuan tersebut meybbkan KPJ-wa menjadi semakin RENDAH PREMIUMNYA....which is good for long term...tak tau apa mainan mereka...tapi harga 1.33-1.35 is a good price to buy...

UNISEM --> sudah SELADANG dah DEWASA (super bull), sudah cecah 3.35....hargani tak sesuai utk beli, tapi sesuai utk MENJUAL, ehehe...kalau nak beli bawah 3.00 is a good suport for now...

JCY --> good counter..now..1.93...and counting...2.00, macam boleh touch down by 5pm aja ni...good price to buy masa bawah 1.70...tapi skrg sudah berlepas...

MKLAND -->watch it....0.34-0.345 is a strong support...and god price to accumulate...


These are some of my watchlist counters, and my own pooint of view....not a recommendation to buy or sell, unless at your own risk....:)

Wallahu'alam...

Any comment?
AbgZan
Salam all,
Dah lama betul tak update blog, busy dgn kerja...

Anyway, harini gua nak sentuh sikit ttg harga minyak dunia...sblm ni gua ada mentioned dlm previous post (http://kakilabur.blogspot.com/2010/02/oil-rises-again-towards-80-per-barrel.html ) bahawa harga minyak akan terus naik...gua ada mentioned bahawa, resistance pertama pada USD80, diikuti USD82....then USD85 diikuti USD90...lepas tu USd100....

Skg ni kita tgk USD85 dah dengan jayanya ditembusi. Harga minyak bergelegar sekitar USD85-USD87 utk sekurang-kurangnya seminggu hingga 2 minggu...ini bermakna uptrend akan terus berlaku dlm harga minyak...kalau breakout USD90 berlaku, USD100 menyusul..kalau benteng USD100 jugak berjaya ditembusi....alamat pergi balik ke paras USD148 dan seterusnya USD200....

Persoalannnya bilkah ia akan berlaku? We never know...maybe thn ni....atau thn 2011....tapi gua rasa by end of year USD120 will be on track...

Apakah puncanya kenaikan harga minyak ni? Tu antara soalan yg mungkin ditanya....ada 3 sebab utama:

1) Demand yang tinggi, supply kurang...selalunya kalau berlaku perang ke atas negara-negara pengeluar utama, harga minyak akan melambung la...sbb tu saya harap US tak perang dgn Iran....bahaya oo....bukan saja harga minyak akan naik, tapi juga ekonomi dunia sure akan menjunam...not to mention perang nuklear, yg impaknya amat teruk..

2) dimanipulasi oleh sindiket...seperti yg berlaku sblm ni,di mana ia naik terus menerus sampai USD148 per barrel...lepas tu terus menjunam ke paras about USD36 per tong, and now USD86 per tong....tak ke volatile tu??? siapa lagi kalau bukan kerja2 puak yahudi yang mempermain2kan ekonomi dunia....mereka banyak duit...senang control harga....

3) ekonomi dunia sudah pulih...antara sebabnya jugak kenapa harga minyak menjunam dari USD148 kepada USD36 pada 2008, adalah disbbakan ekonomi dunia yang merosot....so what?? bila ekonomi dunia merosot, kilang-kilang, manufacturer2, dan lain2 akan kurang production sbb demand kurang...so, penggunaaan minyak kurang. Maka demand minyak kurang, so harga pon menuruun...tapi skrg ekonomi dunia sudah naik, maka sbb tu harga minyak pon turut naik....nak senang citer, harga minyak agak sejajar dengan ekonomi....TAPI TAK SEMESTINYA....di mana apabila harga minyak dah naik tinggi sgt, ekonomi pulak akan menurun balik, sbb kenaikan minyak affect harga barang2, harga kos, etc.....benda ni agak complicated....hehe....

Apa pun, gua rasa sblm 2nd Half of 2010, harga minyak akan cecah USD96-USd98 per barrel.....that is my target...

Apa patut kita sbg org kebanyakan boleh buat? tak byk boleh kita buat..

1) kumpul minyak dlm tong besar, sblm harga minyak naik
2) beli stok saham minyak...kalau kat BSKL boleh beli SAPCRES, DIALOG, Tanjung Offshore, Kencana, Dayang,Deleum, Saag, Perisai, KNM, Shell, Petdag dan sebagainya....hehe....

Wallahu'alam....

Takkan baca aja kawan2,komen ler sikit, hehe