Assalamualaikum all,


The correction that made such a brief appearance two weeks ago has returned, this time apparently to stay. For me and anyone following the Common Sense system, that means opportunity.
Last week, the Nasdaq dropped convincingly below the Common Sense buying threshold, which is a 10% decline from the most recent high reached on April 23. The S&P 500 also dropped more than 10% from its peak, putting both major averages into an official correction, the first since the bull market began its rise on March 10, 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below the 10% correction threshold Thursday, returned above the line Friday and fell back below it again Monday. The Common Sense approach calls for buying on corrections of 10%, and selling after rallies of 25%.
Just two weeks ago I fretted that a buying opportunity had come and gone so fast I was unable to take advantage of it. The $1 trillion rescue plan unveiled by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund had triggered a huge rally, and it looked like the bull market was back. I needn't have worried. European sovereign worries have returned with a vengeance. Not only did the market's plunge renew a buying opportunity, but indexes fell so rapidly last week that the Nasdaq Composite was well below the 10% threshold on Thursday, when I made some purchases.
This is yet another reminder to remain focused on the long term and not get caught up in the minute-by-minute or even daily gyrations of the stock market. I've said for months that eventually there would be a correction, and not just one lasting a few minutes.
Having gone through three successive selling opportunities during the past year, I had ample cash at my disposal. (I generally sell roughly 10% of my portfolio at each selling opportunity and spend about 20% of my cash at each buying window.) In deciding what to buy, I simply followed the advice I've offered in recent columns. One strategy was to add exposure to commercial real estate, a sector I'd shunned as overvalued but recently concluded showed promise. I'll give a more detailed report on my real estate strategy in a future column, but one component was simply to buy a diversified exchange-traded fund, the Vanguard REIT Index Fund (NYSEArca: VNQ - News).
For stocks, I focused on some of my own recent recommendations in the technology sector. Despite generally solid earnings, the tech sector has corrected more severely than the broad market. I bought long-term Apple (NYSE: AAPL - News) calls at only a modest premium to the current price (I already have a position in Apple shares), as well as the PowerShares QQQ (NasdaqGM: QQQQ - News) exchange-traded fund, which approximates the performance of the Nasdaq. I've been impressed recently with strong earnings from big technology concerns like Intel (NasdaqGS: INTC - News), Cisco Systems (NasdaqGS: CSCO - News), and Oracle (NasdaqGS: ORCL - News), which account for three of the fund's top 10 holdings. (Apple is its largest position.)
I also raised cash by selling some Google (NasdaqGS: GOOG - News) puts. This is the first time I've sold puts in over a year. (Selling puts means you agree to buy shares at the strike price if they're trading below that price when they expire.) It's a strategy I recommend when option prices are high (such as when the VIX has jumped, as it did last week) and when I expect shares to rally. If you really hope to own the shares, I find you're better off buying them outright or buying calls. I wouldn't mind owning Google at the strike price, but since I already have a substantial position, I'm also happy to simply keep the cash should the puts expire above the strike price.
I did all these transactions last Thursday afternoon, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was heading toward a 376-point one-day loss. With the previous brief correction fresh in my mind, I moved quickly in case the window proved fleeting. I needn't have; stocks were still in correction territory this week.
My reaction illustrates the persistence of psychological factors, even after years of investing. Why was I so concerned this correction would be brief? After waiting more than a year for a buying opportunity, the rising market has conditioned me to expect more of the same: a brief correction followed by the return of the bull. I was eager to put money to work and get it out of low-yielding money-market funds. And yet I realized my eagerness should have been tempered by the likelihood that this may not be the last correction. If history is any guide, the fact that there hasn't been a correction for so long increases the chances that there will be another 10% decline.
So I still have cash in reserve. As usual, I'm making no short-term predictions about the direction of the market. My goal is simply to be prepared when opportunities present themselves, as they did last week.
Highlights of PM's speech at Invest Malaysia 2010 on
Tuesday, March 30
The backbone of Malaysia's long-term policy
agenda will be a new economic model - which will be integrated into the 10th
Malaysia Plan and with a longer-term vision that will be delivered through the
11th Malaysia Plan. These can transform the Malaysian economy to become one with
high incomes and quality growth over the next decade.
Three principles from the NEAC report - firstly, high income, secondly, sustainability and thirdly, inclusiveness.
These three principles will drive Malaysia's
economic progress to become a fully developed nation; a competitive economy
strategically positioned in the regional and global economic landscape,
environmentally sustainable and a quality of life that is all inclusive and
encompassing.
There will be a renewed affirmative action policy in
the New Economic Model, with a focus on raising income levels of all
disadvantaged groups. It will focus on the needs of all our people - those
living in the long houses in Sabah and Sarawak and poor rural households in
Semenanjung Malaysia (Peninsular Malaysia), who often feel disconnected from the
mainstream economic activity. Fishermen. petty traders.and small farmers also
fall under this category .
Malaysia's renewed affirmative action policy
will be built on four principles -- must be market friendly, it must be merit
based, it must be transparent and
it must be needs based.
The eight
Strategic Reform Initiatives will focus on:-
1) Re-energising the
private sector to lead growth;
2) Developing a quality workforce and
reducing dependency on foreign labour;
3) Creating a competitive
domestic economy;
4) Strengthening the public sector;
5) Putting
in place transparent and market friendly affirmative action;
6) Building
knowledge base infrastructure;
7) Enhancing the sources of growth; and
8) Ensuring sustainability of growth.
EPF's investments
The Employees Provident Fund presently dominates local equity and
bond markets with up to 50 percent of daily Bursa volume represented by EPF
related trades, a situation that is not healthy for the market or for the EPF.
EPF will be allowed to invest more assets overseas, both diversifying
its portfolio and creating more room domestically for new participants. EPF
presently has about 6 percent of assets invested offshore and this will increase
significantly.
EPF will also increase its direct investments in the real
economy of Malaysia, as an alternative to market investments - taking positions
in healthcare, commodities, property and other long-term investments that match
EPF's requirements to protect the real rate of return on its assets.
GLCS, Government holding agencies
GLCs and Government
holding agencies pursuing strategic collaborations with private sources of
capital in Malaysia in order to provide prospective investors with exposure to
the government order book and build national competencies.
Divestment of non-core assets
Progress in the area of
divesting non-core assets has seen Khazanah alone has over the course of the
last nine months divested significant stakes in Tenaga Nasional, Malaysia
Airports and PLUS for the purpose of increasing the liquidity of these counters.
But more such progress in this area must be made.
Govt to pursue further
such divestments of non-core and non competitive assets that operate in areas
where new strategic shareholders have the potential to enhance the creation of
value, as compared to them being left within the government stable.
Khazanah has resolved to divest its controlling 32 percent stake in POS
Malaysia through a two-stage strategic divestment process. Khazanah will draw up
a bidding and evaluation process to select a new and entreprenuerial shareholder
to further modernize POS Malaysia.
Petronas has already identified two
sizable subsidiaries with good track records to be listed this year. These
initiatives have the goal to reduce the Government's presence directly or
indirectly in business activities that are best carried out by the private
sector and are a clear signal of our commitment to promoting competition in the
economy, risk taking and long-term economic growth that benefits all Malaysians.
Privatisations
Govt considering privatization measures
related to, Percetakan Nasional Malaysia Berhad, CTRM Aero Composites Sdn Bhd,
Nine Bio Sdn Bhd and Innobio Sdn Bhd with more under consideration.
Land
To promote higher levels of economic investment, expansion and growth,
several parcels of land in Jalan Stonor, Jalan Ampang, Jalan Lidcol, Kuala
Lumpur have been identified to be tendered out and developed by the private
sector. This initiative will be a good kick-off for more outright sale and joint
ventures between the public and private sectors in land development.
Government of Malaysia and the EPF will form a joint-venture to promote
the development of 3,000 acres of land in Sungei Buloh into a new hub for the
Klang Valley. This will lead to over RM5 billion of new investments being made
that will have an immediate effect on domestic growth, with an enormous
potential for the private sector to participate in prominently.
untuk mengelakkan berlakunya kelembapan ekonomi yang sangat buruk.OPR naik kepada 2.25 peratus (source: Utusan)
KUALA LUMPUR 4 Mac -
Seperti mana yang dijangkakan, Jawatankuasa Dasar Monetari Bank Negara Malaysia
(BNM) hari ini memutuskan untuk menaikkan Kadar Dasar Semalaman (OPR) kepada
2.25 peratus.Ia merupakan kenaikan sebanyak 0.25 peratus daripada paras
sebelumnya 2.00 peratus.
Kadar terendah dan tertinggi koridor OPR turut
dinaikkan masing-masing kepada dua peratus dan 2.50 peratus.
Gabenor
BNM, Tan Sri Dr. Zeti Akhtar Aziz sebelum ini telah memberikan bayangan beberapa
kali pada awal tahun ini, bahawa kadar faedah yang rendah boleh memberi risiko
ketidakseimbangan dalam kewangan, sekali gus menjejaskan proses pemulihan
ekonomi negara.
Menurut beliau, sebarang pelarasan dalam kadar faedah
adalah untuk mencapai tahap biasa dan bukan mengetatkan dasar.
Utusan
Malaysia pada 23 Februari lalu melaporkan BNM dijangka akan mengumumkan kenaikan
OPR dalam jangka masa terdekat.
Pada tahun lalu, kebanyakan penganalisis
tempatan berpendapat BNM hanya akan menaikkan menaikkan OPR menjelang separuh
pertama tahun ini selepas mengambil kira keadaan ekonomi global khususnya
negara-negara maju yang masih tidak stabil.
Malah, menurut mereka,
peningkatan jumlah pengangguran di Amerika Syarikat dikhuatiri menjejaskan
proses pemulihan ekonomi kuasa besar itu.
Bank Pusat itu dalam kenyataan
penjelasannya di sini berkata, pemulihan dalam ekonomi global semakin
menggalakkan berikutan sokongan dasar yang berterusan dan keadaan kewangan yang
bertambah baik.
Menurutnya, aktiviti ekonomi dalam ekonomi-ekonomi maju
telah meningkat, meskipun pertumbuhan dijangka kekal sederhana.
Walau
bagaimanapun, ekonomi-ekonomi pasaran yang sedang pesat membangun mencatat
pemulihan yang lebih kukuh.
Ekonomi-ekonomi serantau, khususnya,
berkembang dengan kukuh pada suku keempat 2009 dan momentum pertumbuhan dijangka
berterusan.
Bagi ekonomi dalam negeri, prestasi pertumbuhan yang lebih
kukuh pada suku keempat 2009 mengesahkan bahawa pemulihan ekonomi adalah mantap.
''Melangkah ke hadapan, pertumbuhan dijangka terus bertambah kukuh dan
disokong oleh permintaan dalam negeri dan peningkatan yang berterusan dalam
permintaan luar terutama dari ekonomi serantau,'' katanya.
BNM berkata,
sebagai mencerminkan keadaan ekonomi semasa dan pelarasan yang mungkin dibuat
terhadap harga ditadbir, paras harga akan meningkat secara beransur-ansur
sepanjang tahun ini.
Meskipun faktor luaran, termasuk kenaikan harga
komoditi dan bahan makanan global, dijangka menyebabkan tekanan menaik terhadap
harga dalam negeri, inflasi bagi tahun ini dijangka terus sederhana.
BNM telah menurunkan OPR ke paras terendah dalam sejarahnya pada 2009 kepada dua
peratus sebagai langkah utama
Cabinet to decide on new power tariffKomen ye kawan-kawan :)
Written by Bernama
Tuesday, 23
February 2010 16:24
KUALA LUMPUR: The Cabinet will decide Wednesday on
the new electricity tariff, says Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister
Datuk Seri Peter Chin Fah Kui.
He said his ministry had submitted a
proposal paper on power rate review to the Economic Planning Unit in the Prime
Minister's Department.
"If the Cabinet approves, there will be some
increase, it can't be a reduction," he told reporters at the Tenaga Nasional Bhd
Chinese New Year gathering.
On the percentage of increase, Chin said: "I
can't tell you because (Wednesday) the Cabinet may decide otherwise". — Bernama
5 Reasons Why the Market Is About to Change Direction (seekingalpha.com)
by:
Chris Vermeulen December 24, 2009 about: DIA / SPY / UUP / GLD / USO
About this author:
Chris Vermeulen's articles on Seeking Alpha
It’s been a great year as we head into the final few trading sessions.
The past several weeks the indexes have not done much of anything, which is why
we are now in cash.
I feel as though the market is about to change
direction abruptly in the coming days or weeks. I feel this way for several
reasons:
NYSE, Dow Jones, S&P500 are all drifting higher into
resistance levels on the 10 day, 60 minute charts. Light volume tends to favor
higher price, hence the reason for the holiday rally.
Broad market momentum
waves are topping.
These same indexes are trading at resistance levels from
early 2008.
Money flow is indicating large institutions have been big
sellers over the past 3 weeks.
The US economy, I think, is worse than most
want to think.
So take a look at these 10 day charts which clearly show
resistance and support trend lines. Each, if broken, will lead to a sharp
decline. I used ETFs as substitutes for the indexes.
Dow Jones – DIA –
Top Chart
S&P500 - SPY– Middle Chart
NYSE – Bottom Chart
Stock Market Trend
Stocks have started to decouple for the US
dollar in recent days so I am not focusing much on what effect the dollar will
have on the above indexes.
That being said, the US dollar (UUP etf fund)
is at a pivotal point. It’s either going to bounce off the trend line support
level (blue line) and send gold back down to test the previous low, or break
down through the support trend line. A falling dollar will give gold some power
to muscle its way back up to the next short term support level.
Dollar and Gold Trends
Tuesday we said gold stocks and silver
prices would move higher. I consider gold stocks and silver my leading
indicators for the price of gold. Today (Wednesday Dec 23rd), gold stocks and
silver shot higher – out-performing gold by 7:1, which is very bullish for gold.
Crude oil had a large rally Wednesday, sending the USO oil fund surging
3.5%, confirming a bounce off our support level 2 weeks ago. It could be warming
up for another rally.
Natural gas opened lower but put in a strong
session as it trended up all day. This also looks very strong and if prices
break out and follow through next week, natural gas could be making a real rally
for once.
This is a short trading week with Thursday only a half trading
session and Friday being closed for Christmas/Holidays. We will not have any low
risk setups this week and because we are sitting in cash, let’s take this time
to enjoy our family, friends and pets.Takkan baca aja kawan2, komen la sikit, heehee
Bank Islam jadi pemaju hartanah?
Oleh WAN NAJIB WAN DAUD
najib.daud@utusan.com.my
PETALING JAYA 16 Dis. – Bank Islam Malaysia
Bhd. (Bank Islam) tidak menolak kemungkinan untuk menjadi pemaju hartanah pada
masa depan berikutan pembabitannya dalam pembangunan hartanah wakaf di negara
ini.
Pengarah Urusan Bank Islam, Datuk Seri Zukri Samat berkata,
pembabitan bank tersebut di dalam pembangunan hartanah masih di peringkat awal.
Ketika ini Bank Islam terbabit di dalam pembangunan Menara Wakaf
setinggi 34 tingkat yang dibangunkan oleh TH Technologies Sdn. Bhd., yang mana
bank tersebut bertindak sebagai penyewa utama kepada bangunan itu apabila ia
siap kelak.
“Menara Wakaf yang terletak di Jalan Perak, di sini
merupakan projek pertama Bank Islam terlibat secara tidak langsung namun kita
membayangkan untuk membabitkan diri secara serius di dalam bidang hartanah pada
masa depan jika ada peluang,” katanya.
Beliau berkata demikian kepada
pemberita selepas majlis perasmian cawangan Bank Islam cawangan Kota Damansara
yang ke-95 di sini yang dirasmikan oleh Menteri di Jabatan Perdana Menteri,
Datuk Jamil Khir Baharom.
Turut hadir ialah Pengerusi Bank Islam, Datuk
Mohd. Bakke Salleh dan Pengarah Urusan Lembaga Tabung Haji, Datuk Ismee Ismail.
Dalam pada itu Zukri berkata, Bank Islam merancang untuk membuka 10 lagi
cawangan barunya tahun depan dengan pelaburan mencecah hampir RM7 juta ringgit.
Beliau berkata, pembukaan 10 lagi cawangan baru itu merupakan antara
usaha untuk mengukuhkan kehadiran Bank Islam di negara ini selain menjadi pemain
utama dalam sektor perbankan Islam.
Katanya, daripada 10 cawangan yang
dirancang itu, tiga telah dikenal pasti lokasinya manakala selebihnya di dalam
perancangan untuk menentukan lokasi.
“Antara lokasi yang telah
ditetapkan ialah Alor Setar, Bukit Jelutong Shah Alam dan Sri Petaling yang mana
kos pelaburan adalah antara RM600,000 hingga RM700,000 sebuah,” katanya.
Menurut Zukri, bagi tahun kewangan yang berakhir 31 Disember tahun depan
Bank Islam yang dimiliki oleh Lembaga Tabung Haji secara majoritinya perlu
menggandakan usaha untuk meningkatkan kehadiran serta pegangan pasaran di negara
ini.
Katanya, Bank Islam telah menukar tahun kewangannya yang berakhir
30 Jun setiap tahun kepada 31 Disember bermula tahun depan bagi tujuan
penyeragaman sebagaimana yang dilakukan oleh Lembaga Tabung Haji.
“Sebagai syarikat yang menguasai 52 peratus di dalam Bank Islam, maka
kami perlu mengikut hala tuju yang telah ditetapkan oleh pemegang saham utama
kami,” katanya.
Khazanah terus jual pegangan dalam GLC
KUALA LUMPUR 16 Dis. - Khazanah
Nasional Bhd. (Khazanah) akan terus menjual pegangannya dalam syarikat-syarikat
milik kerajaan (GLC), selepas melakukan penempatan dua peratus ke atas Tenaga
Nasional Bhd. (TNB), minggu lalu.
Pengarah Urusannya, Tan Sri Azman
Mokhtar berkata, penempatan itu akan dilakukan secara berperingkat-peringkat.
''Kita akan terus mengurangkan pegangan dalam GLC tetapi
beransur-ansur,'' katanya ditanya sama ada pelupusan itu akan terus dilakukan
pada masa depan.
Beliau bagaimanapun enggan mengulas lanjut mengenainya.
Penjualan itu dilakukan selepas Khazanah melakukan penempatan 55 juta
saham Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd. (MAHB) pada September lalu.
Khazanah telah menjual 86.75 saham TNB pada harga RM8.10 sesaham,
meningkatkan hasil kasar sebanyak RM702.7 juta untuk sayap pelaburan itu.
Tindakan tersebut juga selari dengan janji Perdana Menteri, Datuk Seri
Najib Tun Razak pada Mei dan November lalu untuk meningkatkan pasaran saham
tempatan.
Khazanah menguasai sebahagian daripada kepentingan dalam
Malaysian Airline System Bhd., PLUS Expressways Bhd. dan UEM Land Holdings Bhd.
Malah, ia turut memiliki kepentingan dalam syarikat kereta nasional,
Proton Holdings Bhd., Kumpulan Axiata Bhd. dan Telekom Malaysia Bhd.
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